Eric Vallabh Minikel, Sonia M Vallabh, Margaret C Orseth, Jean-Philippe Brandel, Stéphane Haïk, Jean-Louis Laplanche, Inga Zerr, Piero Parchi, Sabina Capellari, Jiri Safar, Janna Kenny, Jamie C Fong, Leonel T Takada, Claudia Ponto, Peter Hermann, Tobias Knipper, Christiane Stehmann, Tetsuyuki Kitamoto, Ryusuke Ae, Tsuyoshi Hamaguchi, Nobuo Sanjo, Tadashi Tsukamoto, Hidehiro Mizusawa, Steven J Collins, Roberto Chiesa, Ignazio Roiter, Jesús de Pedro-Cuesta, Miguel Calero, Michael D Geschwind, Masahito Yamada, Yosikazu Nakamura, Simon Mead
Neurology 93(2) e125-e134 2019年7月9日 査読有り
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether preventive trials in genetic prion disease could be designed to follow presymptomatic mutation carriers to onset of disease. METHODS: We assembled age at onset or death data from 1,094 individuals with high penetrance mutations in the prion protein gene (PRNP) in order to generate survival and hazard curves and test for genetic modifiers of age at onset. We used formulae and simulations to estimate statistical power for clinical trials. RESULTS: Genetic prion disease age at onset varies over several decades for the most common mutations and neither sex, parent's age at onset, nor PRNP codon 129 genotype provided additional explanatory power to stratify trials. Randomized preventive trials would require hundreds or thousands of at-risk individuals in order to be statistically powered for an endpoint of clinical onset, posing prohibitive cost and delay and likely exceeding the number of individuals available for such trials. CONCLUSION: The characterization of biomarkers suitable to serve as surrogate endpoints will be essential for the prevention of genetic prion disease. Parameters such as longer trial duration, increased enrollment, and the use of historical controls in a postmarketing study could provide opportunities for subsequent determination of clinical benefit.