阿江 竜介

IMPORTANCE: Global studies have reported that the incidence of Kawasaki disease (KD) declined during the COVID-19 pandemic. These studies suggest that the global pandemic and its accompanying mitigation measures may provide an important opportunity to explore the hypothesis of a KD pathogenesis. OBJECTIVE: To compare changes in KD incidence in Japan before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study was conducted using the data set from Japan's 26th nationwide KD survey that obtained information on patients who were diagnosed with KD in Japan from January 1, 2019, through December 31, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Kawasaki disease incidence rates were calculated by referring to the national population data in the vital statistics data for Japan. RESULTS: A total of 28 520 patients were identified (16 236 male individuals [56.9%]; median [IQR] age, 26 [14-44] months). A total of 17 347 patients were diagnosed with KD in 2019 and 11 173 were diagnosed in 2020, representing a 35.6% reduction in the number of patients diagnosed in 2020 compared with the previous year. Patient distributions for days of illness at the first hospital visit were almost identical in 2019 and 2020, suggesting that the decrease in KD incidence likely was not associated with pandemic-related delays in seeking treatment. The proportion of patients diagnosed with KD who were younger than 12 months was significantly larger in 2020 than in 2019 (21.6% vs 19.4%; P < .001). Compared with KD incidence among younger patients, the incidence among those 24 months and older declined rapidly after initiation of COVID-19 special mitigation measures, with a greater percentage reduction (58.3% reduction in July), but rebounded faster after the end of the special mitigation period. By contrast, the incidence among patients younger than 12 months declined moderately after the initiation of the special mitigation period, with a lower percentage reduction (40.3% reduction in October), and rebounded at a later phase. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, the number of patients diagnosed with KD decreased by approximately one-third across Japan in 2020, with no indication that parents avoided a hospital visit. Differences in KD incidence reduction patterns before and after the initiation of COVID-19 pandemic mitigation measures were found in patients with KD aged younger than 12 months compared with those 24 months or older, suggesting a potential KD pathogenesis involving transmission among children.

BACKGROUND: No studies have assessed the independent association of methionine homozygosity at codon 129 with the susceptibility to prion diseases, controlling for the effects of the codon 219 polymorphisms and other potential confounders, using a large-scale population-based dataset. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study using a Japanese nationwide surveillance database for prion diseases. The main exposure was methionine homozygosity at codon 129, and the outcome was development of prion diseases. Multivariable logistic regression models were employed for specific disease subtypes (sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), genetic CJD and Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker disease (GSS)). RESULTS: Of 5461 patients registered in the database, 2440 cases and 796 controls remained for the analysis. The cases comprised 1676 patients with sporadic CJD (69%), 649 with genetic CJD (27%) and 115 with GSS (5%). For patients with methionine homozygosity, potential risk for occurring prion diseases: adjusted OR (95% CI) was 2.21 (1.46 to 3.34) in sporadic CJD, 0.47 (0.32 to 0.68) in genetic CJD and 0.3 (0.17 to 0.55) in GSS. Among patients with specific prion protein abnormalities, the potential risk was 0.27 (0.17 to 0.41) in genetic CJD with 180 Val/Ile, 1.66 (0.65 to 5.58) in genetic CJD with 200 Glu/Lys, 3.97 (1.2 to 24.62) in genetic CJD with 232 Met/Arg and 0.71 (0.34 to 1.67) in GSS with 102 Pro/Leu. CONCLUSIONS: Methionine homozygosity at codon 129 was predisposing to sporadic CJD, but protective against genetic CJD and GSS, after adjustment for codon 219 polymorphism effect. However, the impacts differed completely among patients with specific prion protein abnormalities.

Previous studies indicated residents in geriatric long-term care facilities (LTCFs) had much higher prevalence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) carriage than the general population. Most ESBL-E carriers are asymptomatic. The study tested the hypothesis that residents with ESBL-E carriage may accumulate inside geriatric LTCFs through potential cross-transmission after exposure to residents with prolonged ESBL-E carriage. 260 residents from four Japanese LTCFs underwent ESBL-E testing of fecal specimens and were divided into two cohorts: Cohort 1,75 patients with ≥ 2 months residence at study onset; Cohort 2, 185 patients with < 2 months residence at study onset or new admission during the study period. Three analyses were performed: (1) ESBL-E carriage statuses in Cohort 1 and Cohort 2; (2) changes in ESBL-E carriage statuses 3-12 months after the first testing and ≥ 12 months after the second testing; and (3) lengths of positive ESBL-E carriage statuses. Compared with the residents in Cohort 1, a significantly larger proportion of residents in Cohort 2 were positive for ESBL-E carriage (28.0% in Cohort 1 vs 40.0% in Cohort 2). In the subsequent testing results, 18.3% of residents who were negative in the first testing showed positive conversion to ESBL-E carriage in the second testing, while no patients who were negative in the second testing showed positive conversion in the third testing. The maximum length of ESBL-E carriage was 17 months. The findings indicated that some residents acquired ESBL-E through potential cross-transmission inside the LTCFs after short-term residence. However, no residents showed positive conversion after long-term residence, which indicates that residents with ESBL-E carriage may not accumulate inside LTCFs. Practical infection control and prevention measures could improve the ESBL-E prevalence in geriatric LTCFs.

Previous studies have found the prevention paradox in the association between stroke events and a single specific risk factor, indicating that a population-based strategy may be more effective than a high-risk-based strategy for prevention. We tested the hypothesis that the prevention paradox does not apply when focusing on multiple potential risk factors simultaneously. The study cohort included 9051 individuals from Japan aged 40-89 years. The time-dependent Cox proportional-hazards models were used to identify the primary risk factor associated with stroke onset. We classified participants based on risk factors in two distinct ways: 1) classifying the high-risk group participants according to a single specific risk factor that had a large association with stroke in both sexes and all ages and 2) classifying the high-risk group participants according to 1-3 risk factor(s) including hypertension, hyperglycemia, and/or dyslipidemia. Then, we compared the proportions of the total number of participants who developed stroke in both groups to assess the prevention paradox. We found that hypertension was a primary risk factor for stroke incidence, regardless of sex and age. The percentage of patients with a single specific risk of and developed stroke was 46%-63%, while the percentage of patients with 1-3 risk factor(s) was 71-83%. This finding leads to the conclusion that the prevention paradox does not hold when multiple stroke risk factors were associated, suggesting that a high-risk-based strategy that focuses on patients with multiple risk factors may be more effective in preventing strokes.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the epidemiologic association between Kawasaki disease and common pediatric infectious diseases (PIDs) identified during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period to confirm whether the infection-triggered theory is a plausible hypothesis for the pathogenesis of Kawasaki disease. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective epidemiologic study was conducted using datasets obtained from Web-based surveillance of Kawasaki disease and PIDs in Japan. We compared weekly numbers of patients who developed Kawasaki disease and specific PIDs between 2020 and 2017-2019 and evaluated the association between the percent reduction in the number of patients with these diseases. RESULTS: A total of 868 patients developed Kawasaki disease in 2020. During the social distancing period in 2020, the number of patients with Kawasaki disease was approximately 35% lower than in 2017-2019. Time from the onset of Kawasaki disease until the first hospital visit did not differ significantly among the examined years. The proportion of older children with Kawasaki disease decreased more than that of infants with Kawasaki disease (age <1 year), resulting in a significant difference in the proportion of infant patients between 2020 and 2017-2019 (24% vs 19%; P < .01). The number of patients with incomplete Kawasaki disease was unchanged from that of previous years. The weekly percent reduction in patient numbers differed between Kawasaki disease and PIDs during 2020, with no strong correlation between the 2 diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that parents of patients with Kawasaki disease did not avoid hospital visits during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The findings indicate the possibility that triggering Kawasaki disease might be associated with presently unidentified respiratory pathogen(s) that potentially might be acquired from both within and outside the household.

Background Detection of coronary artery lesions (CALs) at initial echocardiography can aid in diagnosing Kawasaki disease (KD) and inform primary adjunctive treatments. We aimed to characterize patients with KD with CALs detected at initial echocardiography. Methods and Results We analyzed data from the nationwide Japanese KD survey that contained information on 103 222 population-based patients diagnosed with KD across Japan during 2011 to 2018. Patients with CALs detected at initial echocardiography were assessed by age, day of illness, and number of principal KD signs (≥3). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate factors independently associated with CAL detection. Overall, 3707 (3.6%) patients had CALs detected at initial echocardiography. Patients aged <12 and ≥60 months were associated with CAL detection (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI], 1.28 [1.18‒1.39] and 1.32 [1.20‒1.45], respectively; reference, 12‒59 months). Patients with delayed hospital visits were increasingly at higher risk for CAL detection (days 7‒8, 1.84 [1.63‒2.08]; days 9-10, 4.30 [3.58-5.15]; and days ≥11, 9.12 [7.63‒10.90]; reference, days 1-4). Patients with 3 or 4 principal KD signs were independently associated with CAL detection (1.75 [1.63‒1.88]). These patients were significantly more likely to be aged <12 months but were not associated with delayed hospital visit. Younger patients visited at earlier days of illness. Conclusions Timely diagnosis could be beneficial for patients with KD. However, even when the hospital visit occurred early in the course of illness, patients with 3 or 4 principal KD signs, especially younger patients, were at higher risk of CAL detection at initial echocardiography.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether redness and crusting at the bacille Calmette-Guérin inoculation site (BCGitis), identified during acute illness owing to Kawasaki disease (KD), is an independent risk factor for development of cardiac complications. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using data from the nationwide KD survey in Japan. SETTING: Survey respondents included hospitals specialising in paediatrics and hospitals with ≥100 beds and a paediatric department throughout Japan. PATIENTS: We included 17 181 patients with KD across Japan during 2005-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: BCGitis and cardiac complications resulting from KD. RESULTS: BCGitis was identified in 7549 (44%) patients with KD. Compared with patients without BCGitis, those with BCGitis were younger, more likely to be male, less likely to have recurrent status and visited a hospital and underwent initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment earlier after KD onset. In the unadjusted model, patients with BCGitis were significantly less likely to have cardiac complications (crude OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.92). However, after including treatment factors (days of illness at initial IVIG and treatment responsiveness) in the adjusted model, the association was no longer significant (adjusted OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.03), indicating that BCGitis was not an independent factor associated with cardiac complication and might be confounded by treatment factors. CONCLUSIONS: BCGitis was identified in comparatively early illness stages of KD. Our findings indicated that BCGitis was not an independent factor associated with developing cardiac complications but was confounded by prompt initial IVIG administration, which might result in successful treatment and prevention of cardiac complications.

BACKGROUND: A high prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization has been reported among residents in geriatric long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Some studies indicate that MRSA might be imported from hospitals into LTCFs via resident transfer; however, other studies report that high MRSA prevalence might be caused by cross-transmission inside LTCFs. We aimed to assess which factors have a large impact on the high MRSA prevalence among residents of geriatric LTCFs. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study among 260 residents of four geriatric LTCFs in Japan. Dividing participants into two cohorts, we separately analyzed (1) the association between prevalence of MRSA carriage and length of LTCF residence (Cohort 1: n = 204), and (2) proportion of residents identified as MRSA negative who were initially tested at admission but subsequently identified as positive in secondary testing performed at ≥2 months after their initial test (Cohort 2: n = 79). RESULTS: Among 204 residents in Cohort 1, 20 (9.8%) were identified as positive for MRSA. Compared with residents identified as MRSA negative, a larger proportion of MRSA-positive residents had shorter periods of residence from the initial admission (median length of residence: 5.5 vs. 2.8 months), although this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.084). Among 79 residents in Cohort 2, 60 (75.9%) were identified as MRSA negative at the initial testing. Of these 60 residents, only one (1.7%) had subsequent positive conversion in secondary MRSA testing. In contrast, among 19 residents identified as MRSA positive in the initial testing, 10 (52.6%) were negative in secondary testing. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of MRSA was lower among residents with longer periods of LTCF residence than among those with shorter periods. Furthermore, few residents were found to become MRSA carrier after their initial admission. These findings highlight that MRSA in LTCFs might be associated with resident transfer rather than spread via cross-transmission inside LTCFs.

OBJECTIVE: To report the epidemiologic characteristics, treatments, and cardiac complications of Kawasaki disease, using data from the nationwide survey in Japan. STUDY DESIGN: The nationwide Kawasaki disease survey in Japan has been conducted biennially since 1970. The most recent survey was completed in 2019, obtaining information for patients who developed Kawasaki disease during 2017-2018. Survey respondents were hospitals specializing in pediatrics and those with ≥100 beds and a pediatric department throughout Japan, where patients with Kawasaki disease were eventually hospitalized. RESULTS: The survey identified 32 528 patients with Kawasaki disease, which consisted of 15 164 (46.6%) in 2017 and 17 364 (53.4%) in 2018. The highest annual incidence rate was recorded in 2018 (359 per 100 000 children aged 0-4 years). After 1982, patients with ≤4 principal Kawasaki disease signs gradually increased, resulting in 6847 (21.1%) patients diagnosed during 2017-2018. Among the 30 784 patients receiving initial intravenous immunoglobulin administration, 6061 (19.7%) did not respond. Within 30 days of Kawasaki disease onset, 9.0% of patients were diagnosed with cardiac complications, and 2.6% of patients developed cardiac sequelae after the acute illness. CONCLUSIONS: The annual number of patients developing Kawasaki disease in Japan increased from 1970 through 2018, whereas the proportion of patients with Kawasaki disease with cardiac complications decreased in the most recent 2 decades. Early diagnosis of Kawasaki disease as well as advances in initial treatments could explain these findings.

BACKGROUND Randomized controlled trials previously provided different conclusions about the superiority of adding corticosteroids to initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment for the prevention of coronary artery abnormalities in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). To further assess this issue, we analyzed large-scale data from nationwide KD surveys in Japan, where combination treatment (corticosteroids added to initial standard intravenous immunoglobulin treatment) has become commonly used for patients at high risk for KD. METHODS AND RESULTS Standard intravenous immunoglobulin treatment and combination treatment were compared using data from time periods with and without combination treatment. Outcome measures were coronary artery abnormalities and initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment failure. Hospitals where ≥20% of patients received combination treatment were identified, and treatment and control groups were selected via matching by age, sex, illness day at initial treatment, and KD recurrence. Matched group selection and subsequent analyses were conducted 1000 times to minimize sampling bias and potential confounders (bootstrapping). From 115 hospitals, 1593 patients with KD in the treatment group and 1593 controls were selected for each of the 1000 sample iterations. The median proportion of patients who developed coronary artery abnormalities among the treatment group and controls were 4.6% (95% CI, 3.8%-5.8%) and 8.8% (95% CI, 7.5%-10.0%), respectively: an estimated risk ratio of 0.53 (0.41-0.67). A median of 14.1% (95% CI, 12.4%-15.9%) of the patients in the treatment group and 21.7% (95% CI, 19.8%-23.4%) in the controls had treatment failure: an estimated risk ratio of 0.65 (0.56-0.75). CONCLUSIONS Combination treatment reduced coronary artery abnormality risk by an estimated 47% and treatment failure by 35%. Multiple-dose corticosteroids may provide benefit in selected patients at high risk for KD.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies demonstrated that coronary artery lesions (CALs) resulting from Kawasaki disease (KD) can improve over time. However, limited information is available on sub-acute outcomes of CALs detected at admission during KD illness. METHODS: The nationwide Japanese KD survey contained substantial information on KD patients with CALs detected at admission and who received standard IVIG treatment within 10 days of disease onset. Coronary outcomes were evaluated by changes in CALs from admission to the first assessment at 30 days from disease onset in three categories: improved, unchanged, and progressed. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate factors associated with the outcomes. RESULTS: Of 2024 patients with CALs detected at admission, improved, unchanged, and progressed outcomes were found in 1548 (76.5%), 390 (19.3%), and 86 (4.2%), respectively. Over 80% of patients with coronary artery (CA) dilatations had improved outcome. Independent factors associated with worse outcomes were larger-size CALs (adjusted ORs [95% CIs]: CA aneurysm = 5.13 [3.65-7.22] and giant CA aneurysms = 7.49 [3.56-15.72] compared with CA dilatation, respectively), age ≥ 60 months (1.45 [1.08-1.94] compared with 12-59 months), recurrent KD (1.57 [1.07-2.29]), parental history of KD (2.23 [1.02-4.85]), and delayed admission (8-10 days from disease onset: 1.76 [1.21-2.57] compared with 1-4 days). CONCLUSIONS: KD patients with larger CALs, ≥60 months old, and with recurrent status or parental history may require more rigorous treatment. In addition, delayed admission may result in worse coronary outcome, indicating that prompt diagnosis and treatment are required.

BACKGROUND: Platelet count is considered as a biomarker for the development of coronary artery abnormalities (CAAs) among Kawasaki disease (KD) patients. However, previous studies have reported inconsistent results. We addressed the controversial association of platelet count with CAAs using a large-scale dataset. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using KD survey data from Japan (2015-2016; n = 25,448). Classifying patients by intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) responsiveness, we described the trends in platelet count using the lowest and highest values along with the specific illness days. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between platelet count and CAAs, adjusting for relevant factors. RESULTS: Platelet counts rapidly decreased from admission, reached the lowest count at 6-7 days, and peaked after 10 days. Platelet counts in IVIG non-responders decreased with a lower minimum value than IVIG responders, but subsequently rebounded toward a higher maximum. Compared with patients with normal platelet counts (150-450 × 10/L), patients with abnormally high platelet counts (>450 × 10/L) were more likely to have CAAs at admission (adjusted odds ratio: IVIG responders, 1.50 [95% confidence interval 1.20-1.87] and non-responders, 1.46 [1.01-2.12]). By contrast, IVIG non-responding patients whose counts were below normal (<150 × 10/L) after hospitalization were at higher risk for developing CAAs (2.27 [1.44-3.58]). CONCLUSIONS: Platelet count varied widely by illness day and was confounded by IVIG responsiveness, which might have contributed to previous inconsistent findings. KD patients with abnormally high platelet counts at admission or abnormally low counts after hospitalization were at higher risk for CAAs.