安田 英人

OBJECTIVES: We aim to assess the early use of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) of patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) using the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) in prognosis prediction. The CTSI combines quantification of pancreatic and extrapancreatic inflammation with the extent of pancreatic necrosis. METHODS: Post-hoc retrospective analysis of a large, multicentric database (44 institutions) of SAP patients in Japan. The area under the curve (AUC) of the CTSI for predicting mortality and the odds ratio (OR) of the extent of pancreatic inflammation and necrosis were calculated using multivariable analysis. RESULTS: In total, 1097 patients were included. The AUC of the CTSI for mortality was 0.65 (95 % confidence interval [CI:] [0.59-0.70]; p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, necrosis 30-50 % and >50 % in low-enhanced pancreatic parenchyma (LEPP) was independently associated with a significant increase in mortality, with OR 2.04 and 95 % CI 1.01-4.12 (P < 0.05) and OR 3.88 and 95 % CI 2.04-7.40 (P < 0.001), respectively. However, the extent of pancreatic inflammation was not associated with mortality, regardless of severity. CONCLUSIONS: The degree of necrosis in LEPP assessed using early CECT of SAP was a better predictor of mortality than the extent of pancreatic inflammation.

INTRODUCTION: Early and accurate identification of high-risk patients with peripheral intravascular catheter (PIVC)-related phlebitis is vital to prevent medical device-related complications. AIM OF THE STUDY: This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based model for predicting the incidence of PIVC-related phlebitis in critically ill patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Four machine learning models were created using data from patients ≥ 18 years with a newly inserted PIVC during intensive care unit admission. Models were developed and validated using a 7:3 split. Random survival forest (RSF) was used to create predictive models for time-to-event outcomes. Logistic regression with least absolute reduction and selection operator (LASSO), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting decision tree were used to develop predictive models that treat outcome as a binary variable. Cox proportional hazards (COX) and logistic regression (LR) were used as comparators for time-to-event and binary outcomes, respectively. RESULTS: The final cohort had 3429 PIVCs, which were divided into the development cohort (2400 PIVCs) and validation cohort (1029 PIVCs). The c-statistic (95% confidence interval) of the models in the validation cohort for discrimination were as follows: RSF, 0.689 (0.627-0.750); LASSO, 0.664 (0.610-0.717); RF, 0.699 (0.645-0.753); gradient boosting tree, 0.699 (0.647-0.750); COX, 0.516 (0.454-0.578); and LR, 0.633 (0.575-0.691). No significant difference was observed among the c-statistic of the four models for binary outcome. However, RSF had a higher c-statistic than COX. The important predictive factors in RSF included inserted site, catheter material, age, and nicardipine, whereas those in RF included catheter dwell duration, nicardipine, and age. CONCLUSIONS: The RSF model for the survival time analysis of phlebitis occurrence showed relatively high prediction performance compared with the COX model. No significant differences in prediction performance were observed among the models with phlebitis occurrence as the binary outcome.

BACKGROUND: Status epilepticus (SE) is potentially life-threatening, however, it is unclear which antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) should be used as second-line AEDs. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing multiple second-line AEDs for SE to investigate the efficacy of AEDs. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov, and World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Platform Search Portal and included RCTs for patients aged ≥15 years with SE on December 31, 2023. We compared multiple second-line AEDs for SE including fosphenytoin (fPHT), lacosamide (LCM), levetiracetam (LEV), phenytoin (PHT), phenobarbital (PHB), and valproate (VPA). The primary and secondly outcomes were termination of seizures integrating the absence of seizure recurrence at 30 min and 60 min, and adverse events associated with AEDs, respectively, with expressing as relative risk (RR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We conducted a NMA using frequentist-based approach with multivariate random effects, and assessed the certainty based on the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations framework. RESULTS: Seven RCTs (n = 780) were included, and statistically significant difference was detected between VPA vs. PHB (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.53-0.85; very low certainty), fPHT vs. PHB (RR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.48-0.90; very low certainty), LCM vs. PHB (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.41-0.93; very low certainty), and LEV vs. PHB (RR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.51-0.94; very low certainty). Moreover, PHB was the highest in the ranking for termination of seizures. For adverse events, no significant reduction was observed owing to the selection of AEDs, although the ranking of PHB was the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: PHB may have been the most effective for seizure termination as second-line AEDs in adult patients with SE. However, the certainty of almost all comparisons was "very low", and careful interpretation is essential.

PURPOSE: While follow-up CT and prophylactic embolization with angiography are often conducted during non-operative management (NOM) for BLSI, particularly in a high-grade injury, the utility of early repeated CT for preventing unexpected hemorrhage remains unclear. This study aimed to elucidate whether early follow-up computerized tomography (CT) within 7 days after admission would decrease unexpected hemostatic procedures on pediatric blunt liver and spleen injury (BLSI). METHODS: A post-hoc analysis of a multicenter observational cohort study on pediatric patients with BLSI (2008-2019) was conducted on those who underwent NOM, in whom the timing of follow-up CT were decided by treating physicians. The incidence of unexpected hemostatic procedure (laparotomy and/or emergency angiography for ruptured pseudoaneurysm) and complications related to BLSI were compared between patients with and without early follow-up CT within 7 days. Inverse probability weighting with propensity scores adjusted patient demographics, comorbidities, mechanism and severity of injury, initial resuscitation, and institutional characteristics. RESULTS: Among 1320 included patients, 552 underwent early follow-up CT. Approximately 25% of patients underwent angiography on the day of admission. The incidence of unexpected hemostasis was similar between patients with and without early repeat CT (8 [1.4%] vs. 6 [0.8%]; adjusted OR, 1.44 [0.62-3.34]; p = 0.40). Patients with repeat CT scans more frequently underwent multiple angiographies (OR, 2.79 [1.32-5.88]) and had more complications related to BLSI, particularly bile leak (OR, 1.73 [1.04-2.87]). CONCLUSION: Follow-up CT scans within 7 days was not associated with reduced unexpected hemostasis in NOM for pediatric BLSI.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to investigate whether early advanced airway management during the entire resuscitation period is associated with favorable neurological outcomes and survival in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with OHCA aged ≥18 years enrolled in OHCA registry in Japan who received advanced airway management during cardiac arrest between June 2014 and December 2020. To address resuscitation time bias, we performed risk set matching analyses in which patients who did and did not receive advanced airway management were matched at the same time point (min) using the time-dependent propensity score; further, we compared early (≤10 min) and late (>10 min) advanced airway management. The primary and secondary outcome measures were favorable neurological outcomes using Cerebral Performance Category scores and survival at 1 month after cardiac arrest. RESULTS: Of the 41,101 eligible patients, 21,446 patients received early advanced airway management. Thus, risk set matching was performed with a total of 42,866 patients. In the main analysis, early advanced airway management was significantly associated with favorable neurological outcomes (risk ratio [RR] 0.997, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.995-0.999) and survival (RR 0.990, 95% CI 0.986-0.994) at 1 month after cardiac arrest. In the sensitivity analysis with early advanced airway management defined as ≤5 min and ≤20 min, the results were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Although early advanced airway management was statistically significant for improved neurological outcomes and survival at 1 month after cardiac arrest, the RR was very close to 1, indicating that the timing of advanced airway management has minimal impact on clinical outcomes, and decisions should be made based on the individual needs of the patient.